Turning Point
Jewelry Industry In 2008 To Move Toward A Turning Point
At the end of 2007, when about to enter the Beijing cuisine 100 company to 2.38 billion yuan in sales once again set a record of it to keep the industry. Cook 100, if the barometer of market conditions as observed, then – in fact, many operators have already recognized this status of 100 dishes – then, 23.8 million single-store sales, no doubt can be seen as jewelry market continues to boom in 2007 a convincing proof. However, not everyone agreed with this view. In the second half, some company sales down year on year there are signs, which enable the industry to the assessment of market performance for the year were divided. If you put aside a series of statistical data show, then, perhaps, things are not as simple as people imagine.
The overall strength of the terminal
On the whole gold jewelry market, in 2007 are still optimistic about the fundamentals.
100 According to the company’s year-end cuisine statistics: in 2007 the company’s full year sales of 23.8 billion yuan, in 2006, 1.538 billion yuan, an increase of 54.7%. This is a dish 100 companies ranked for 18 consecutive years, Beijing gold jewelry sales in the first and the first nationwide same-store sales. Remove the merchandise section, dishes of gold and silver jewelry 100 categories of goods the company accounted for sales of more than 95% of total sales, of which gold jewelry and gold bullion sales totaled 1.3 billion, an average gold price last year is about 170 yuan per gram basis, equivalent to 7.65 tons of gold sales, compared with 2006 growth of 27.5%; the same time, in January 2007 to October, the company’s total sales of diamonds only on the 2.70 billion yuan, more than 2006 full-year sales of diamond jewelry.
In November 2007, China Gems & Jewelry Trade Association told the outside world, said 2007 sales of gold jewelry nationwide last year to maintain 15% growth year is expected to total sales is expected to reach 180 billion yuan. Although it is not yet released the specific statistics, but the industry is basically right in the Po Association expressed its recognition of this estimate.
And integrated part of the Ministry of Commerce and National Bureau of Statistics monitoring data show: the first 8 months of 2007, the whole of society, the average consumption of gold jewelry increased by 30%, and is monitoring 28 major categories of goods in the fastest growing types of goods, far super-growth in the second category of furniture products. The consumption of gold jewelry accounts for 28 major categories are also monitoring the proportion of goods from the 4.54 percent increase in 2006 to 5.24%.
The general trend is positive and progressive. Due to the sustained and stable growth to sustain strong consumer sentiment index continued strength. According to the State Information Center and the Ministry of Commerce Market Operation Division developed a comprehensive consumer sentiment index system shows: the first quarter of 2007, consumer demand fundamentals remain strong growth, consumer sentiment index will reach 105.3 points, an integrated, higher than the fourth quarter of 2006, the first a quarter of all retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to grow 14.5%, showing the market prosperity, Gouxiaoliangwang, hot spots often have a good trend. Affected by this, gold jewelry consumer market continued to strengthen simultaneously. There are seven of the major factors affecting consumer sentiment indices. Including income factors, macroeconomic environment, market operation factor, consumer expectations, service consumption, consumption structure and price factors.
By the China Gold newspaper, the Beijing Gold Economic Development Center by a large-scale market survey results also fully proved this view. On the number of consumers of the annual survey of jewelry, there are ample data show that jewelry consumption is strong in recent years, the market volume growth has been particularly evident on. In the 2003 survey, 5.3% of consumers buy each year for more than four and four of the jewelry. In the 2007 survey data, 4.01% of consumers to buy four jewelry a year, 2.25% of consumers to buy 5 year, jewelry, 6.06% of consumers buy 6 for one year and six or more jewelry, a total of 12.32 % of consumers to buy four one-year and four or more jewelry. From the above data we can see that the purchasing power of consumers clearly enhanced.
The upper reaches of the ongoing restructuring of
In 2007, in the industrial chain, some changes occurred in the development of the whole industry in fact produced an even more far-reaching impact. This year, Panyu officially sounded the clarion call for the domestic market return flight. Years, a series of industry after another introduced the New Deal. In a processing trade-based Panyu jewelry industry seems so frequent adjustment of industrial policy, is almost unprecedented. However, several billions of dollars in annual export value in terms of Panyu, it will undoubtedly turn a lot of emotion involved. Hesitation, anxious, optimistic, careful … … but in any case, once onto a ship voyage, they will not easily change course. Would like to turn around is not so easy. Optimistic view, Panyu return flight, bound to the domestic jewelry market, dismembered and then reconstruct the original pattern. Or even the whole industry chain are likely to be divisive reorganization. Of course, this depends on the domestic market after the return flight, Panyu and Shenzhen in the how to re-position themselves, how will it look at each other. If all goes well developed, the next few years, people will see a different China’s jewelry industry, geographic coordinates map. All this since 2007.
However, Shenzhen is also pitching in, too. In China’s jewelry industry, the vision, Shenzhen is always an enviable role. For a long period of time, which are in force throughout the jewelry industry, the high-end plate position, on the whole industry to exert a very strong influence. In 2007, Shenzhen Mianlicangzhen. In the calm surface, Shenzhen jewelry industry, are actually made in secret strength. This is a struggle of capital. Jifu Yee went to the Nasdaq after the company listed the local industry to become a hot topic discussed in private. “In the future may also have a few jewelry enterprises are listed in Shenzhen,” an industry veteran who is very sure that. Despite the difficulties, but the Shenzhen jewelry industry believes that Fuqi listing the stock market, neither is the last one, is not the only one. In some companies, a senior under the direct leadership of the company’s “special working group” in the intensely busy, or in finishing the financial statements or in the writing industry analysis reports … … They all work, is to make the assessment agency or regulatory agencies believe that this is the company to complete the joint-stock reform, they can to market.
SHENZHEN jewelery industry is maturing. After all, in 2007 they began a dialogue with the capital.
Caution towards the turning point
”2008 will be China’s jewelry industry, a year into a turning point.” In the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, when some businesses have already made a bold new year forecast. There are many factors for optimism, however, signs of uncertainty should not be ignored.
Second half of 2007, jewelry market is not an auspicious. “Sales in the second half is not very good.” Summing up an industry in sales in 2007, when the complex emotions. So he was puzzled that the company’s flat performance in the second half a bit strange. This is not isolated cases. Some of the industry agreed that the second half of 2007, especially inlaid jewelry sales compared with the previous year, did not show significant growth. This is the majority of the industry’s expected to pose a huge gap.
Why? Some point of view, at least the second half of the domestic CPI does not rule out the impact of continuous rise.
From the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics Beijing Survey Corps statistics show that in November 2007, Beijing’s consumer price index rose 5.3%. In which food prices rose 17.8%, or more than in October increased 1.6 percentage points. Over the same period the consumer price (CPI) rose 6.9%. This data is not only the highest value so far this year, also hit a 11-year high.
Since last year, the domestic CPI index have been rising continuously, increase the community’s concerns about the emergence of inflation. In general, when the CPI> 3% of the rate of increase, there will be danger of inflation; and when the CPI> 5% of the rate of increase, is a serious inflation. Affected by this, people’s consumption is expected to start to correct, especially by residents of non-necessities of consumption will start to become more cautious. As food prices rise too fast, prompting the consumption of basic necessities increase focus. From the National Bureau of Statistics in November 2007 the Consumer warning detection showed that in November, the consumer expectations index, confidence and satisfaction index were 98.7 points, 96.0 points and 92.0 points, the chain fell 0.5 points, 0.5 points and 0.4 points. Among them, the consumer confidence index has been 3 consecutive months, the chain fell, indicating that consumer expectations of future economic growth weakening.
CPI holds the views of the negative effects of people think that, because of fears of inflation risks, the focus of people’s consumption deflection appeared, at least to some extent affected the pairs of gold (220.28,0.47,0.21%, bar) jewelry consumer spending .
In any case, can not ignore the CPI by the release of the signal: gold jewelry market is by no means out of the macroeconomic environment in the run independently. The industry must always pay attention to the national economic situation, in order to timely respond.
Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference to be implemented next year, made clear from the tight monetary policy. This is the first time the country’s monetary policy from “prudent” to “tight.” This shows that in the future banks will be gradually tightened lending. This large flow of funds, capital strength and weak gold jewelry enterprises, added to the misfortunes. Clearly, the jewelry enterprises in the future will be financed through bank loans more difficult.
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